The True Goose of Value
SoftBank is a Japanese investment conglomerate most famous—or notorious—in the English-speaking world for their string of investments in startups you've never heard of* (and companies like WeWork, which you have heard of for being wildly overvalued). A presentation by their founder and CEO, Masayoshi Son, for the 2026 Shareholder AGM** has been doing the rounds this week for being, frankly, completely deranged about AI.*** Using a metaphorical goose.
As best I can tell, the presentation makes the argument that the value of the company can be expressed in golden eggs. Over 16 years, SoftBank has gone from a valuation of 3 billion yen to 74 billion yen. Son's argument is that this value increase doesn't come from the eggs (slide 48 states that 'eggs do not lay eggs') but from the goose that laid them. And according to slide 55, 'ASI'—almost certainly 'artificial superintelligence,' a term that AI superfans use for hypothetical systems that are orders of magnitude smarter than humans—will be a goose that produces even more golden eggs.

Obviously, this is nonsense. ASI isn't real. And the golden egg metaphor obviously doesn't work: goose eggs don't lay more eggs, but rich people's money absolutely does turn into more money, through interest, dividends, and returns from selling stocks and so forth.
But this slide is inadvertently a pretty good encapsulation of how a lot of people—and unfortunately, many people in decision-making roles—think about 'artificial intelligence' in general. That's not how geese work! A goose isn't a factory with feathers, containing an assembly line producing eggs (golden or otherwise). It's a bird: it will lay only when it's old enough, when it's properly fed and cared for, and at the right time of year.**** Laying eggs isn't risk free: geese, like other birds, can get egg-bound if the egg gets stuck in the cloaca. And eventually the goose will get too old to lay.
It's also not how AI works: at least, not the AI we have today. Large language models aren't intelligent: they are enormous computer programs that use data and machine learning to model what human language looks like and produce samples of it based on the model. This is impressive! But it's not intelligence. There's a lot of money invested in making the argument that it is, and that soon LLMs will be as smart as humans, and soon after that exponentially smarter than us (that's the 'artificial superintelligence'). But LLMs aren't human, and they don't learn like humans, and they don't interact with others the way humans do, and there's no real evidence that they will any time soon (or indeed ever).
Factories also require maintenance and supplies, of course. But they're very different from those required by geese! Treating a goose like a factory ignores all the reasons why geese lay eggs and why factories produce products: just as treating a large language model like an intelligent human ignores all the reasons why LLMs produce generated text and humans produce...language, communication, creativity, relationships, and all the other signs of intelligence you can think of. Trying to get more eggs out of a goose with more electricity, better machinery and increasingly automated processes is not going to work. Nor is trying to get 'more intelligence' out of an LLM with more electricity, data and chips. However much tech companies and investment conglomerates would like to think they are the same thing, geese aren't factories, and humans aren't LLMs.
The original fable, of course, ends with the owners, driven by greed, killing the goose that laid the golden eggs: only to find that it's just the same as all their other geese on the inside. Treating LLM-generated text as intelligence, and therefore extrapolating a misunderstanding of where it comes from, what it can do, and what its limits are, is likely to end badly. Masayoshi Son and SoftBank might lose billions of yen, but they will still have plenty. The rest of us might not be so lucky.
* Someone I know worked at a startup which received SoftBank money. They told me the funding went “straight up the founder’s nose.”
** I have linked there to an archive.org copy of the presentation. There is currently a version of the presentation on the SoftBank website, though I haven't been able to find a direct link to it from the page about the 2026 AGM. The AGM was conducted in Japanese, and the slides are in English.
*** Even compared to some of the nonsense doing the rounds currently, this is ludicrous. Which is saying something.
**** Unlike chickens, which do lay all year round. And also unlike chickens, there aren't many goose egg factory farms (geese are factory farmed, but for their meat and for their livers in foie gras).
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